The Comcast/NBCU Split (Part 3 of 3): The Billionaire's Heart (Still) Wants What the Billionaire's Heart Wants

I know it seems unimaginable. And it's too early to start workshopping UniWarnerMount-like portmanteaus just yet. But don't sleep on David Ellison — or his appetite for a third course.

Since Comcast first announced its plans to spin off its NBCUniversal and Sky units into a new debt-laden standalone publicly traded company — which, for convenience, I’m just going to refer to as “NBCU” — one question has dominated the public conversation around the news:

So who’s going to buy NBCU?

And since day one, I’ve given the same answer to that question: don’t sleep on David Ellison.

Typically, my provocation elicits a response in the neighborhood of “No way. It’s unimaginable.”

To which I usually respond: have you been paying attention for the last decade or so? Because a lot of things that once seemed “unimaginable” — in this business, in this country, in this world — have proven to be very very real. And in this, the year of our lord 2026, the mere fact that something seems like it “couldn’t” or “shouldn’t” possibly happen just isn’t reason enough to conclude that it won’t.

Over the first two installments of this series, I’ve argued for why you shouldn’t underestimate the transformative impact of Comcast’s plans to spin off NBCU. I’ve pushed back on those who think it means the end of the bigger-is-better logic that has dominated the industry throughout the twenty-first century, and on those who dismiss the announced spinoff as “never going to happen.” But at the same time, I’ve joined the chorus of voices predicting that Comcast’s announcement will prove to be merely a prelude to a bigger process (and a bigger deal) that will truly define what the immediate future will look like — for NBCU, for its employees, and for the industry as a whole.

Today, I conclude my three-part series on the Comcast/NBCU split by taking a closer look at what that bigger process might look like. Is Comcast looking to expand NBCU or to expel it? What companies and individuals might be plotting their next big move right now? And is David Ellison taking over a third major studio really as unimaginable as it seems?

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Is NBCU a Buyer or a Seller?

It’s a seller.¹

That’s not to say that a standalone NBCU doesn’t have the wherewithal to be a buyer. But I don’t see any plausible acquisition targets that would materially improve its competitiveness as a standalone player.

Lionsgate? I actually have a soft spot in my heart for the perennially-for-sale Lionsgate, which I think deserves more credit than it gets for investing successfully in innovative but risky and unproven concepts and platforms (like AMC’s Mad Men and Netflix’s Orange Is the New Black²), or for nurturing a small but mighty list of surprisingly durable franchises (such as The Hunger Games, John Wick, Twilight, and Saw). But I don’t see how absorbing Lionsgate meaningfully changes NBCU’s competitive position, or makes it significantly more appealing as an acquisition target.

Sony? Unlike Lionsgate, Sony/Columbia seems substantial enough to meaningfully move the needle for NBCU both as an active competitor and an acquisition target. But Sony has demonstrated a consistently careful, cautious, and deliberate approach to high-level corporate dealmaking. As a buyer, it has largely focused on targets like Industrial Media and Alamo Drafthouse — big enough to meaningfully expand its capacities, but small enough to reliably ingest without choking. And while buyers love to speculate about it as a seller, I’m not aware of a single time that Sony Corporation in Japan has seriously entertained any such opportunity.

A24? A24, with its uniquely strong brand identity and cross-generational cool factor, would theoretically give NBCU something genuinely new and additive. But if its owners are looking for an opportunity to cash out, they may find that they’re a victim of their own success. A24’s private equity-driven $3.5 billion valuation will be hard to justify or sustain as part of a publicly traded enterprise. Even more importantly, it may well be impossible to convert A24 from a scrappy indie upstart to a subsidiary of a stodgy corporate behemoth without torching the brand credibility, distinctiveness, and goodwill that are the company’s greatest assets.³

Roku? Maybe if Fox hadn’t beaten them to it. No chance now.

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If NBCU Is a Seller, Then Who’s the Buyer?

Saying that NBCU is ripe to be sold is easy. Identifying who will buy it is substantially harder. When Paramount and Warner Bros. went on the block in 2024 and 2025, respectively, there was a clear shortlist of credible buyer candidates for each. The outlook for NBCU is much murkier — many plausible options to entertain, many legitimate reasons to doubt each, and no clear frontrunner. None stands out as probable, in the sense of being more likely than not to happen. But some certainly seem more likely than others.

I’ve organized the candidates into three “tiers.” So let’s consider our candidates, from Tier 3 (least likely) to Tier 1 (most likely). Who tops the list?